Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.014771 0.016707 0.018802 0.021239 0.023996 0.027020 0.030587
2025-10-05 0.012059 0.014808 0.018036 0.022108 0.027113 0.033069 0.040705
2025-10-12 0.010452 0.013576 0.017454 0.022628 0.029358 0.037830 0.049330
2025-10-19 0.009350 0.012716 0.017091 0.023198 0.031523 0.042499 0.058115
2025-10-26 0.008262 0.011693 0.016329 0.023065 0.032624 0.045743 0.065184
2025-11-02 0.007436 0.010904 0.015759 0.023068 0.033823 0.049123 0.072644
2025-11-09 0.006633 0.010046 0.014981 0.022653 0.034321 0.051474 0.078740
2025-11-16 0.006139 0.009582 0.014710 0.022925 0.035811 0.055341 0.087369
2025-11-23 0.005602 0.008991 0.014182 0.022735 0.036541 0.058069 0.094421
2025-11-30 0.005300 0.008735 0.014137 0.023277 0.038438 0.062728 0.104896
2025-12-07 0.004772 0.008063 0.013367 0.022568 0.038225 0.063955 0.109803
2025-12-14 0.004378 0.007575 0.012851 0.022224 0.038566 0.066084 0.116353
2025-12-21 0.003952 0.007001 0.012152 0.021524 0.038269 0.067155 0.121256
2025-12-28 0.003830 0.006947 0.012335 0.022374 0.040748 0.073220 0.135564
2026-01-04 0.003667 0.006801 0.012342 0.022901 0.042682 0.078457 0.148794
2026-01-11 0.003524 0.006679 0.012379 0.023479 0.044745 0.084074 0.163198
2026-01-18 0.003294 0.006373 0.012051 0.023344 0.045447 0.087208 0.173096
2026-01-25 0.003102 0.006124 0.011810 0.023347 0.046405 0.090884 0.184344
2026-02-01 0.002876 0.005787 0.011371 0.022926 0.046488 0.092859 0.192328
2026-02-08 0.002749 0.005640 0.011288 0.023202 0.047983 0.097723 0.206615
2026-02-15 0.002581 0.005392 0.010987 0.023010 0.048498 0.100642 0.217065
2026-02-22 0.002503 0.005325 0.011043 0.023558 0.050595 0.106964 0.235295
2026-03-01 0.002305 0.004989 0.010520 0.022841 0.049939 0.107456 0.240858